Ivan Kaufman’s Blog2017-07-19T16:32:21+00:00

Ivan Kaufman’s Real Estate Blog

Weekly Roundup Intro: Week of September 2, 2019

This week’s roundup takes a look at apartment construction, mortgage originations and opportunity zones. First, NAHB analyzes U.S. metro areas with increasing or decreasing levels of building activity, noting that core counties of smaller metro areas were popular regions for new multifamily supply in the second quarter. Next, Commercial Property Executive reports that multifamily mortgage originations were robust in the first half of 2019, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s quarterly survey. Arbor’s Chatter blog observes that single-family rental construction has increased significantly over the last decade, growing its share of single-family home construction totals. Then, Multi-Housing News identifies five metros to watch this year due to strong demand for apartments in those areas. Finally, RealPage lists the markets with the most opportunity zones, which are primarily the country’s largest population centers.

Multifamily Regional Market Shares Show Variation from First Quarter

NAHB – September 5

“Consistent with expectations of apartment construction moving from high land-cost areas to low land-cost areas, the data from the second quarter of 2019 show a shift in the shares of new permit issuances from large metro areas to smaller metro areas, small towns, and rural areas.”

Mortgage Originations Trending Upward

CPE – September 4

“Despite predications for a more tempered lending environment this year, second-quarter originations rose above the same period last year and the momentum is building.”

Single-Family Rental Construction Gaining Steam and Market Share

Arbor Chatter – September 3

“SFRs have emerged as a significant source of construction demand during this cycle. Since the last recession, the number of construction starts is up by more than 55%.”

Up-and-Coming Cities for New Apartments in 2019

MHN – September 3

“Despite concerns about an economic slowdown, multifamily development shows no sign of decelerating.”

Which Apartment Markets Have the Most Opportunity Zones?

RealPage – September 3

“Opportunity zones are defined using Census tracts – a geographic designation that is itself used for population estimates – it’s not surprising that the markets with the most zones are some of the nation’s largest population centers.”

Weekly Roundup Intro: Week of August 26, 2019

This week’s roundup offers insights on the top markets for rent growth, cost burdens for renters versus homeowners and Millennial’s influence on housing demand. First, Arbor’s Chatter blog takes a look at the metros that experienced the highest rent growth as of midyear 2019, reflecting a strong first half of the year for multifamily. Next, CoreLogic reports that home prices experienced their 15th consecutive month of slowing growth, with 11 of the top 20 metros facing lower price increases compared to the prior month. HousingWire breaks down the impact of the inverted yield curve on the U.S. economy and the multifamily sector, and why it doesn’t necessarily suggest a recession is imminent. Then, Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies offers an interactive map of the cost burdens for renters and homeowners by metro. Finally, NREI explores how Millennial housing preferences such as urban living and delaying marriage are influencing what types of multifamily assets are in demand.

Midyear 2019 Top Markets for Rent Growth

Arbor Chatter – August 26

“As of midyear 2019, the U.S. multifamily market has been off to a strong start. Here are the top markets for rent growth for the first half of the year.”

Housing Market Cooldown Reaches Longest Streak Since 2009

CoreLogic – August 28

“Home prices in Seattle dropped for the third month in a row, while San Francisco inches closer to seeing its first home price drop since 2012.”

What Does an Inverted Yield Curve Really Mean for Housing, U.S. Economy

HousingWire – August 28

“The inverted yield curve happens what the shorter-term U.S. Treasury notes, like the two-year or three-month notes, produce a higher ROI than the 10-year Treasury notes.”

Interactive Map Shows Renters are More Cost-Burdened Than Homeowners Around the Country

JCHS – August 27

“Renters in expensive coastal metros have some of the highest rates of cost burdens, as seen on the interactive map. Yet, renter households in regions with less expensive housing costs still maintain high cost burdens.”

What Is Innovative Living and Why Is It the Future of U.S. Real Estate?

NREI – August 26

“Co-living—and, more broadly, ‘innovating living’—has emerged as one of the most exciting opportunities in the real estate industry.”

Weekly Roundup Intro: Week of August 19, 2019

This week’s roundup takes a look at second-quarter 2019 construction data, multifamily borrowing and rent growth. First, NAHB reports that the elevated rental share of multifamily construction is keeping average apartment sizes below pre-recession levels, with the average per unit square footage totaling 1,103 in the second quarter. Next, MBA observes that commercial and multifamily loan originations increased 29% from the first to the second quarter of 2019 and 10% year-over-year. Arbor’s Chatter blog breaks down the composition of workers in small and large apartment buildings, noting that the former’s renters have a wider variety of occupations. Then, Scotsman Guide illustrates how metro-level population trends suggest Millennial population growth isn’t the only factor contributing to strong national apartment occupancy. Finally, RealPage analyzes rent growth in the four major Southern California markets (Anaheim, Riverside, Los Angeles and San Diego), noting that rent increases have moderated since the decade-high levels seen in 2015.

Multifamily Construction Data: 2nd Quarter 2019

NAHB – August 23

“The market share of rental multifamily construction starts held steady at 94% during the second quarter of 2019. In contrast, the historical low share of 47% was set during the third quarter of 2005, during the condo building boom.”

Commercial/Multifamily Borrowing Increased 10 Percent in the Second Quarter

MBA – August 22

“With rates even lower during the third quarter, absent a major economic disruption, 2019 is shaping up to be another record year for commercial mortgage lending.”

Small Multifamily is Home to a Wide Mix of Workers

Arbor Chatter – August 20

“Amenity-rich large multifamily is increasingly geared toward high-skill jobs within the urban core, while the more dispersed and affordable small multifamily cater to a wider mix of workers.”

Millennials Can’t Take All the Credit for Apartment-Market Growth

Scotsman Guide – August 22

“The statistics associated with this demographic only partially support the claim that the apartment market moves in step with millennial population growth.”

Rent Growth Cools Across SoCal Markets

RealPage – August 19

“The four major Southern California apartment markets averaged a decade-high rent increase of 6.6% in the year-ending 3rd quarter 2015. Since then, increases have moderated.”