Ivan Kaufman’s Blog2017-07-19T16:32:21+00:00

Ivan Kaufman’s Real Estate Blog

Weekly Roundup Intro: Week of January 28, 2019

This week’s multifamily roundup offers takeaways from the 2019 NMHC Strategies & Outlook Conference, a look at the flattening yield curve’s implications for real estate, and an analysis of the income gap between homeowners, buyers and renters. First, GlobeSt.com reports on the drivers set to fuel multifamily demand in 2019 and beyond, as well as where there are still opportunities for growth. Next, Trepp analyzes how fluctuations in short-term and longer-term interest rates are impacting real estate sales, inventory and prices. Arbor’s Chatter blog takes a look at how demographic shifts and an aging U.S. population are affecting housing market trends. Then, Zillow breaks down household income disparities between homebuyers, owners and renters, highlighting markets where the income gap is particularly wide. Finally, RealPage notes that significant improvement in several metros contributed to national rent growth accelerating in 2018—the first time there’s been momentum since 2015.

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Job Growth and Millennials Driving Multifamily Demand

GlobeSt.com – January 31

“The class C vacancy rate is the lowest across the three classes…which we haven’t seen since back in 2001. The flip side is that we are seeing the class A space getting the majority of the upward momentum in terms of vacancy.”

What Does a Flattening Yield Curve Mean for the Real Estate Markets?

Trepp – January 30

“The more stable rate environment would also be positive for commercial markets. To date, we have not seen much upward pressure on cap rates, even though longer-term Treasury yields have increased.”

Demography Set to Be the Next Disruptor for Multifamily

Arbor Chatter – February 1

“Speaking at the 2019 NMHC Apartment Strategies Outlook Conference, MIT AgeLab Director Joe Coughlin discussed how population shifts and changing generational behaviors could be the greatest disruptor for the housing market.”

Where and Why the Income Gap Among Buyers, Homeowners and Renters is Widening

Zillow – January 29

“To become a homeowner today, buyers need to earn more money than households that already own their home. The typical buyer household earns twice as much (2.1 times) as the typical renter. In some metros, the gap is as high as 2.8 times.”

Rent Growth Jumps in Several Apartment Markets in 2018

RealPage – January 28

“For the first time since 2015, U.S. apartment rent growth accelerated in 2018. The 3.3% increase for the year landed above the 2017 increase of 2.5%. Driving the national momentum was significant improvement in several individual markets, thanks in large part to middle-market performance.”


Weekly Roundup Intro: Week of January 21, 2019

This week’s multifamily roundup provides insights on the top housing trends to watch this year, the impact of labor shortages on apartment development, and economic growth prospects in 2019 and beyond. First, MultifamilyBiz discusses the five trends set to impact the industry, including smart technology and 5G wireless capabilities. Next, Real Capital Analytics reports that the apartment sector had the strongest price growth of all property types at the end of 2018, but at a slower pace than at the start of the year. Arbor’s Chatter blog analyzes the most expensive markets for renting in the U.S., noting that many of the priciest cities are in California. Then, NREI examines how a shortage of construction workers is delaying multifamily development, at a time when the industry is in need of new supply. Finally, Fannie Mae reports that economic growth is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2019, according to its latest Economic and Housing Outlook.

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Five Quickly Evolving Multifamily Housing Industry Trends to Look Out for in the New Year

MultifamilyBiz – January 24

“Today’s communities are filled with smart home technology, hotel-like interiors, in-building retailers, and – believe it or not – there are even more exciting developments to note as we head into 2019.”

US Price Growth Slips to 6.2% in 2018

Real Capital Analytics – January 24

“Apartment price growth, at 8.9% year-over-year, was the strongest among the property types in December, albeit slowed from the double-digit pace set at the start of 2018.”

Major California Metros are the Most Expensive in the U.S. for Apartment Rentals

Arbor Chatter – January 23

“California included four of the five most expensive metros in the nation for apartment rentals, across both small and large asset multifamily.”

Labor Shortages Delay New Apartment Openings

NREI – January 22

“The extra time it now takes to finish an apartment building has added more uncertainty to expectations of how many new apartment units will open over the next few years.”

Slower Economic Growth Expected in 2019, but a Patient Fed Could Put Housing on Firmer Footing

Fannie Mae – January 22

“Economic growth in 2018 will likely turn out to be the strongest of the current expansion, and inflation remained anchored even as the unemployment rate dipped to multi-decade lows.”


Weekly Roundup Intro: Week of January 7, 2019

This week’s multifamily roundup takes a look at shifts in renter, buyer and seller sentiment, the top markets for rental inventory growth, and how elevated supply levels will impact the apartment market. First, Trulia notes that changes in housing trends, such as slowing home price appreciation, are causing younger would-be buyers to be less optimistic about homeownership. Next, Forbes reports that more than 1 million Americans will be priced out of the housing market in 2019, with mortgage rates increasing throughout the last year. Arbor’s Chatter blog analyzes the top markets for multifamily supply growth, noting that smaller metros are seeing the greatest increases in small and large apartment inventory. Then, Mortgage Bankers Association reveals the results of its 2019 outlook survey, which found that more than half of the top commercial and multifamily firms expect mortgage originations to increase this year. Finally, RealPage observes that 2018 markets the fifth consecutive year of U.S. delivery volumes reaching more than 250,000 units, with no signs of slowing down in 2019.


As Housing Trends Shift, So Does Renter, Buyer and Seller Sentiment

Trulia – January 10

“The share of young Americans that say homeownership is part of their personal “American Dream” is falling, likely driven lower by increasing housing costs and a series of obstacles—from student loan debt to unsteady employment—that their older peers don’t have to contend with.”

More Than 1 Million Americans Will Be Priced Out of the Housing Market This Year

Forbes – January 10

“Home prices have been on a steady uptick since 2012, rising 7.7% just last year alone. Mortgage rates, aside from a small blip over the last few weeks, have also been on a tear, jumping more than 60 basis points across 2018.”

Top Markets for Rental Asset Growth

Arbor Chatter – January 8

“When analyzing the top markets for rental growth in the context of market segment peers, smaller metros registered impressive gains in both small and large multifamily as a share of total rental inventory.”

Majority of Firms Expect Originations to Increase

Mortgage Bankers Association – January 8

“More than half of the top commercial/multifamily firms (55%) expect originations to increase in 2019, with 13% expecting an overall increase of 5% or more across the entire market.”

Scheduled Deliveries Mark Big Shifts for Some Apartment Markets in 2019

RealPage – January 10

“Elevated delivery volumes in 2018 extended the record-breaking apartment supply cycle, and 2019 is expected to bring much of the same.”