A Q&A Session with Ivan Kaufman and Sam Chandan
For over 20 years, Arbor has helped multifamily real estate investors achieve their financial goals. In March 2017, Ivan Kaufman, Chairman, President & CEO of Arbor, sat down with Sam Chandan, Silverstein Chair of the New York University SPS Schack Institute and Founder of Chandan Economics, for an in-depth conversation on the state of the multifamily market. Here is the first part of that conversation.
(The following is excerpted from the March 10, 2017 episode of The Real Estate Hour, a weekly SiriusXM Business Radio show powered by the Wharton School of Business. The text below is edited for clarity and brevity. You can listen to the full show by clicking here.)
Ivan, the inauguration is behind us and the President is well into his first 100 days. Based on what you’ve seen so far in terms of this administration’s policy priorities, are there any changes in your outlook for the economy overall in 2017?
We all understand that interest rates have risen — and they’ve risen significantly. The 10-year Treasury rate, for example, has gone as high as 2.6%, and it’s floating in the 2.4% to 2.5% range. So it’s up 75 to 85 bps, and there’s an expectation that there will be some level of further increases on a quarter-to-quarter basis. Higher rates certainly have a direct impact on the valuation and underwriting of multifamily assets.
With respect to the other policies that are being discussed, I think it’s early. Clearly, there is the sense that there is going to be some level of economic prosperity and job growth within the United States. These factors have positive influences on rental growth and homeownership. But I think it’s too early to really understand the impact of some of the proposed policies.
I think we economists have a very similar sense of things. It is still unclear as to the exact policies that will be enacted. But there does seem to be this sense of optimism. When we look at things like the consumer confidence indices or measures of sentiment — people are fairly confident. I think that’s part of what’s feeding into the higher interest rate environment.
As you have pointed out, we have seen signals from the Federal Reserve that they anticipate a series of rate increases over the course of 2017.
How does optimism for the economy feed into expectations for multifamily demand drivers? Here I’m thinking about growth in the number of rental households. What is happening with job growth? Do you see it potentially moving in tandem with income growth over the next year?
Wage growth and rental growth have not run in tandem. Rental growth has clearly outpaced wage growth. When thinking about job growth, we already have somewhat of a tight labor market in terms of unemployment. It’s logical to take the position that additional job growth will yield some wage growth. This has an impact on underwriting multifamily assets.
Most lenders project flat rental growth when looking at property. We’ve had unprecedented rental growth over the last five to seven years. We’ve seen that in spite of the fact that the wage growth has not been that dramatic. If in fact we see some real job growth — which will translate into some wage growth — perhaps there will be some additional growth in rents.
But on a macro basis, flat rent growth is the way creditors are viewing rental income streams for the future. There are pockets with supply and demand imbalances which will see some rental growth. But overall, a flat to modest increase is the outlook.
Higher interest rates obviously have a direct impact on the mortgage rates that we pay in the United States. So much of the dynamic following the housing crisis has really been about the interplay of the questions: Do I want to own a home? Can I get a mortgage? Do I want to be tied down? Do I want to be in a suburban area?
I think you have continuing demand for rentals. But as mortgage rates go up, do you see this potentially having a significant impact on the balance of renting versus owning? Higher interest rates make home buying more expensive.
I think first you have to understand how quickly the affordability factors have changed since the election. Rates went from 3.5% or 3.75% up to 4.5%. That’s a 25% increase. Most people buying homes are fairly stretched as is. So I think either they can’t afford the home they were looking at before, or there will be some level of price adjustment.
If they can’t afford the home they were looking for, then perhaps they will look towards rental housing. There could be a little bit of a boost in rental housing. I don’t think home prices will adjust down in such a short period of time. Maybe we are looking at a short-term demand driver for rental housing until interest rates are sorted out — or until home pricing has adjusted accordingly.
We do tend to focus a lot of our attention on the relatively younger renter — the Millennial demographic — that wants the walkability and the flexibility that comes with being a renter instead of an owner. But on the other side of the demographic spectrum, we’ve also got Baby Boomers that are increasing in numbers very rapidly. We might conflate Baby Boomers with empty nesters who have seen their youngest children move on to start their own families. Is this group part of the demand equation right now?
Well, it’s interesting. I think the dynamics of the empty nester, later household formation and the psychological impact of the housing crisis have all combined to contribute to higher demand on the rental side of the market.
With later household formation, apartment living and urban demand may begin to translate back into homeownership at some point. We haven’t seen it yet, but we’ve heard from people who have been renting that are now starting to have families. They are looking back out to the suburbs. But we haven’t seen the full materialization of this trend yet.
(Stay tuned for Part II of Ivan Kaufman and Sam Chandan’s conversation on the multifamily market.)